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In 2018, my country's tungsten industry generally maintained a stable operation. The output of tungsten concentrate was stable, and the output of smelting and processing products continued to increase, especially the output of cemented carbide continued to maintain a double-digit growth trend; the export volume of tungsten products maintained growth, but the growth rate declined, and the imported tungsten products increased; the price of tungsten market declined, and the overall stability was stable. Due to the direct damage of the Sino-US trade friction to the export of tungsten products and the indirect drag from the downturn of tungsten consumption-related industries such as 3C and automobiles, in the second half of 2018, the export volume and price of my country's tungsten products declined, the economic benefit of enterprises fell, and the enterprises made profits. The ability differentiation has intensified, and the foundation for the industry's economic situation to improve needs to be further consolidated.
In 2019, the steady and tight supply of tungsten market will continue. The price of tungsten concentrate is affected by the decline in resource grade, rising costs, and increasing pressure on safety and environmental protection, and there is little room for decline; market uncertainties increase, downstream demand growth continues to slow down, and market demand pressure is relatively large; tungsten intermediate products and hard metals The prices of terminal products such as high-quality alloys are under pressure, and it is unlikely that they will rise sharply. It is expected that the market price of tungsten is expected to continue to operate smoothly in a relatively reasonable range.
According to the statistics of China Tungsten Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as China Tungsten Association), the national tungsten concentrate output in 2018 was 126,000 tons (equivalent to WO365% tons), a year-on-year decrease of 3.73%. The main reasons for the year-on-year decrease in absolute output are: the output includes the processing output and trade volume of mineral products of trading companies, and there are duplicate statistics; some tungsten mines have stopped production due to safety, environmental protection and tungsten resources and other reasons; some mineral product trading companies have stopped production or changed their careers. In 2018, the processing output and trade volume of mineral products of trading enterprises dropped significantly, down 10.47% year-on-year, and the decline was 4.82 percentage points higher than that in 2017. Excluding the mineral processing output of incomparable trading enterprises and the output of discontinued enterprises, the output of tungsten concentrate in 2018 increased by 1.94% compared with the same-caliber enterprises, and the growth rate narrowed by 1.65 percentage points compared with the same period in 2017, and the output growth continued to slow down.
In 2019, the national tungsten concentrate output will continue to stabilize. First, the phenomenon of resource depletion and insufficient replacement resources has become increasingly prominent, and due to factors such as policy control, resource endowment, mining and selection costs, safety and environmental protection, it is difficult to increase the output of main tungsten mines. By the end of 2018, 10 main tungsten mines in my country had been mined for 100 years or more, and the national average grade of processed raw ore dropped from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28% in 2017. The China Tungsten Association conducted a questionnaire survey on 34 major tungsten mines and showed that the resource grade of 24 tungsten mines declined, and 7 of them tended to be exhausted. Second, the comprehensive utilization of co-associated tungsten resources declined. The comprehensive utilization of co-associated tungsten resources in Henan Province has declined for three consecutive years, from 24,498 tons in 2015 to 16,578 tons in 2018, a decrease of 7,920 tons, a decrease of 32.33%. Third, the processing output of mineral products of trading enterprises is shrinking year by year. The above-mentioned production reduction factors offset the increase in the production of main tungsten mines due to technological transformation in some regions, and the national tungsten concentrate production will remain stable.
Although affected by the Sino-US trade friction, the market price declined and the output growth declined in the second half of 2018, but the output of main tungsten smelting and processing products maintained an overall increase in the whole year of 2018. According to the statistics of China Tungsten Association, in 2018, the main tungsten smelting and processing enterprises are ammonium paratungstate (hereinafter referred to as APT), tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide, ammonium metatungstate, cemented carbide, CNC blades, hard surface materials, tungsten materials, tungsten crucibles And the output of ferrotungsten increased by 5.24%, 2.06%, 2.22%, 7.49%, 9.78%, 13.76%, 33.88%, 21.68%, 16.26%, 2.99% and 1.11% respectively. Tungsten bars, thick tungsten wires, high specific gravity alloys and tungsten electrodes decreased by 3.88%, 17.46%, 38.55% and 12.95% year-on-year respectively.
The output of cemented carbide maintained a growth trend, especially the strong growth of bars and high-end cemented carbide CNC inserts, which continued to maintain double-digit growth. The product structure adjustment and industrial transformation and upgrading continued to advance. my country's tungsten smelting process technology and product quality have reached the world's leading level, the tungsten industry is moving towards high-end industrial development, the level of cemented carbide process technology and equipment has been continuously improved, and the gap between product quality and grade and market competitiveness and foreign advanced enterprises has further narrowed , is constantly developing in the direction of high performance, high precision and high added value, and is approaching the advanced ranks of the world's tungsten industry.
According to the statistics of China Tungsten Association, in 2017, my country exported 35,400 tons of tungsten products (including cemented carbide and folded metal), a year-on-year increase of 27.29% and a new high since 2008. Affected by the Sino-US trade friction, the growth rate of export tungsten products slowed down significantly in the second half of 2018, but the export of tungsten products in 2018 still reached a record high and continued to maintain a high level.
In 2018, my country exported 39,200 tons of tungsten products (including cemented carbide, folded metal), a year-on-year increase of 10.65%, and an increase of 16.64 percentage points lower than that in 2017. Among them: the export of cemented carbide increased by 22.38% year-on-year, accounting for 20.05% of the total export, and the proportion was 1.92 percentage points higher than that in 2017; the export of tungsten products with the original quota increased by 10.01% year-on-year, accounting for 60.63% of the total export, accounting for more than 2017. By 0.35 percentage points, the structure of export products continued to improve.
In 2018, the export value of my country's tungsten products (including cemented carbide) was 1.902 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 42.51%, of which the export of cemented carbide was 571 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 37.19%. Although export prices declined in the second half of 2018, the export prices for the whole year of 2018 still maintained a relatively large increase year-on-year, and the overall recovery continued. The comprehensive annual average price of exported tungsten products was US$42,505.74 per ton of metal (total annual export value/total export metal volume, excluding cemented carbide), a year-on-year increase of 34.11%, an increase of 26.49 percentage points over 2017.
Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea are the four major destinations for my country's tungsten exports. In 2018, the volume of tungsten products (excluding cemented carbide) exported to Japan, South Korea and Europe increased by 19.25%, 8.91% and 4.20% year-on-year respectively. The volume of tungsten products in the United States decreased by 11.29% year-on-year. The volume of tungsten products exported to the above four countries and regions accounted for 89.17% of the total exported tungsten products, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points from 2017. Among them, the volume of tungsten products exported to Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States accounted for 25.29%, 18.76%, 31.16% and 13.96% of the total exported tungsten products respectively. Compared with the same period, the proportions of Japan and South Korea increased by 2.38 and 4.24 percentage points respectively. , Europe and the United States accounted for a decrease of 1.15 and 2.96 percentage points respectively.
In 2018, my country imported 4,573 tons of tungsten products (excluding cemented carbide, tungsten-containing concentrates, and folded metals), a year-on-year increase of 57.28%, changing the trend of declining for four consecutive years. The import value was 131 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 43.35%. Among them: 3,429 tons of imported tungsten concentrate were imported, a year-on-year increase of 68.76%, accounting for 74.98% of the total import, and the import value was 45.49 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 65.97%.
my country's imported tungsten concentrates mainly come from North Korea, Vietnam, Rwanda and Russia. In 2018, 2,916 tons of tungsten concentrates were imported from these four countries, a year-on-year increase of 160.59%, accounting for 85.04% of the total imports, accounting for 29.97 more than in 2017. percentage point. The amount of tungsten concentrate imported from North Korea has jumped to the first place, and the distribution of tungsten concentrate importing countries has changed.
Since 2017, the tungsten market demand has continued to recover, the price has been running smoothly, the fluctuation range has narrowed, and the upstream and downstream tungsten market prices have gradually returned to rationality. Affected by the anticipation of Sino-US trade friction, the slowdown of international market demand, and the suspension of production of some domestic APT companies, although the price of tungsten market has fluctuated and declined since July 2018, the price level of tungsten market throughout the year still rose significantly year-on-year. generally stabilized.
In 2018, the annual average price of domestic tungsten concentrate was 106,000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%, and the increase was 13.5 percentage points lower than that in 2017; the average domestic APT price was 167,800 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 20.89%, an increase of 13.5 percentage points compared with 2017. narrowed by 9.41 percentage points.
In 2018, the APT quotation of the British "Metal Bulletin" operated in the range of US$270/ton kWh to US$354/ton kWh. It showed an upward trend in the first half of the year and stabilized in the second half of the year, with an annual average of US$313/ton kWh, a year-on-year increase of 28.99%.
In 2018, the tungsten industry generally maintained a stable operation. Affected by the direct damage to the export of tungsten products caused by the Sino-US trade friction and the indirect drag from the downturn of tungsten consumption-related industries such as 3C and automobiles, in the second half of 2018, exports declined, prices fell, and the economic benefits of the tungsten industry declined. Some tungsten enterprises still lost money. The differentiation of corporate profitability has intensified, and the foundation for the improvement of the industry's economic situation needs to be further consolidated.
According to the statistics of China Tungsten Association, in 2018, the operating income of 125 major tungsten enterprises increased by 18.04% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.24 percentage points lower than that in the first to third quarters of 2018; The quarterly slowdown was 2.73 percentage points; the realized profits and taxes increased by 23.18% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 13.78 percentage points lower than that in the first three quarters of 2018; In terms of different industries, the profits of tungsten mines, cemented carbide and ferrotungsten have increased significantly, while the profits of tungsten smelting and tungsten material processing have declined.
In 2019, the steady and tight supply of tungsten market will continue. The price of tungsten concentrate is affected by the decline in resource grade, rising cost, and increasing pressure on safety and environmental protection, and there is little room for decline; there are still many market uncertainties, downstream demand growth has slowed down, and market demand pressure is still large; APT, powder The prices of other tungsten intermediate products and end products such as cemented carbide and tungsten materials are under pressure, and it is unlikely that they will rise sharply. The market price of tungsten is expected to continue to operate in a relatively reasonable range.
From the perspective of supply, first, the domestic supply of tungsten raw materials is stable and tightening. Affected by factors such as policy control, resource endowment, mining and dressing costs, safety and environmental protection, etc., the output of main tungsten mines and comprehensive utilization output decline, as well as the shrinkage of mineral processing output, which will offset the production of main tungsten mines caused by technological transformation in certain regions. Increase; secondary resource recycling and utilization grow steadily, but the impact on market supply is limited. Second, foreign tungsten concentrate output remained stable. Under the current global economy and tungsten market price situation, it is still difficult for foreign mines to resume production (for example, the Cantung Mine tungsten mine in Canada has been suspended since December 2015 due to high costs, and the Hermerdon tungsten mine in the United Kingdom can only achieve production capacity after it was put into operation in September 2015. Half of the tungsten mine has been discontinued since October 2018), and new projects are progressing slowly (for example, the Mactung Mine tungsten mine in Canada has not yet been developed, and Almenty has five tungsten mines under construction and discontinued production, and only three mines are currently in production; The tungsten mine is still under construction), Vietnam’s Niu Phao tungsten concentrate production remained stable; Bolivia and Austria’s tungsten concentrate production was small and remained stable; Mongolia’s tungsten concentrate production decreased significantly; North Korea’s tungsten concentrate production increased significantly; Rwanda, Production of tungsten concentrates such as Australia and Brazil is relatively low. Third, foreign reserves and inventories are still at historically low levels. U.S. tungsten strategic reserves have declined, and Russia’s reserves are very low. Affected by market uncertainties such as Sino-U.S. trade frictions, foreign tungsten companies are cautious in purchasing and controlling inventory.
From the demand side, in 2019, the tungsten market demand will continue to maintain a low-speed growth trend. First, my country's economy is generally stable, the quality and efficiency are steadily improving, and the manufacturing purchasing manager index continues to remain in the boom range, especially the continuous growth of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure construction and private investment, which will continue to drive the market demand for tungsten. Second, with the Sino-US trade friction turning around, confidence in the international tungsten market has recovered. Although the demand in the foreign tungsten market has weakened, it is expected to maintain a stable trend. In 2018, the total US GDP is expected to exceed US$20 trillion for the first time, the fastest growth in the past four years, the unemployment rate has hit a new low since 2000, the consumer confidence index has reached the highest level since 2000, and the number of drilling rigs and manufacturing orders have increased. In the 2017/2018 fiscal year, Kennametal achieved sales revenue of US$2.368 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.04%, and net profit of US$200 million, a year-on-year increase of 307.38%. Although the economy of the 28 EU countries has slowed down, the overall operation is stable, and the consumption and market confidence are still at a high level. It is expected that the GDP growth in 2018 will remain around 2.1%. Sandvik's 12 consecutive months of orders, revenue, adjusted operating profit and cash flow all hit record highs in 2018, with full-year orders up 9.0% year-on-year. Among them, the mining and rock drilling technology and materials technology sectors saw double-digit growth in orders, with strong growth in most regions, and single-digit growth despite slowing growth in machining solutions, mainly due to lower orders in Asia and the automotive industry. slowing effect. The annual operating income was SEK 100.072 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and the operating profit (adjusted) was SEK 18.625 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%. The output of cemented carbide in Japan keeps growing, and the demand grows steadily.
However, it should be noted that the tungsten market still faces many challenges and risks. First, there are new changes and variables in the world economy, increasing uncertainties, insufficient growth momentum, and fluctuations in commodity prices. Some international institutions have lowered their forecasts for world economic growth this year and next. Although the Sino-US trade friction has turned a corner, the indirect impact on the tungsten industry cannot be underestimated. Second, the risk of business operation is worthy of attention. First of all, the implementation of policies such as market access negative list, environmental protection tax and resource tax, as well as the delineation of ecological protection red lines, the strengthening of safety production and environmental protection supervision, especially the prevention and control of tungsten smelting pollution and the reduction and recycling of tungsten slag and harmless utilization and disposal are facing unprecedented pressure. Secondly, the cancellation of the registration of changes in the production scale of mining rights and the expansion of mine capacity, especially the expansion of small mines less than 30,000 tons, deserve attention. The third is to "prohibit small and enlarge" the market access of tungsten ore mining, which will be beneficial to the replacement of old mine resources, promote the large-scale and intensive mining of tungsten resource development, and protect the ecological environment, but it will also limit the control of the total amount of tungsten ore mining. some pressure. Fourth, market competition intensified. my country's tungsten industry is in a critical period of industrial transformation and high-quality development, facing both development opportunities and severe challenges. The concentration of the tungsten industry is not high, the low-end and middle-end production capacity is still excessive, and the industrial structural contradiction is still prominent.